More economic indicators for the market Tharika
الأربعاء، 4 نوفمبر 2009
, Posted by موت احبك at 9:15 ص
More economic indicators for the market Tharika:
At a time when most traders rely on the Forex market on technical analysis, the proportion of traders who rely on technical analysis 25% of total traders, compared with 30% rely on technical analysis. And merchants who rely on daily circulation, increases the proportion of users of technical analysis more than that. In any case, we have learned an important lesson during the past year, namely, the growing importance of fundamental analysis as a key driver of the engines of the market. Depending on what we have observed, occurs most important movements of the U.S. dollar often (against the euro) during the first twenty minutes after the publication of the report.
Change the relative importance of data over time:
The evolution of the relative importance of economic data and reports with the passage of time. In 1992, they read the balance of trade of primary importance among the occupying U.S. economic data driving the market, while U.S. employment report (and unemployment data) are in third place of importance. In 2004, took employment with the report of the unemployment data from the first place so important to be one of the biggest engines in the dollar market, and became the trade balance are in third place. It is obvious that change is so significant a change to the attention of market data and different economic sectors from time to time, for example, it is possible to receive data on trade balances priority when the country is expected to run deficits are in continuity. Similarly, the unemployment data is more important in the case of the economy face the difficulty in finding jobs for the people.
According to research conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Category forex traders of the importance of economic data, and change with time:
During 1997:
1 - unemployment.
2 - interest rates.
3 - inflation.
4 - the trade balance.
5 - Product GDP.
During 1992:
1 - the trade balance.
2 - interest rates.
3 - unemployment.
4 - inflation.
5 - Product GDP.
The other thing that must be borne in mind that prices return to normal during the day, so the larger engine of the U.S. dollar during the twenty minutes is not necessarily to be the biggest engine in the market during the trading session daily. According to our analysis with trading during the day and during the twenty minutes, we found that economic data can be classified according to their importance as follows:
During 2004 (a period of twenty minutes):
1 - unemployment (the report of the NFP).
2 - Interest rates (decisions of the Committee Federal Open Market on interest).
3 - the trade balance.
4 - inflation (consumer price index).
5 - retail sales.
6 - Product GDP.
7 - the current account.
8 - durable goods.
9 - foreign purchases of U.S. bonds (data TIC).
In 2004 (during the trading day):
1 - unemployment (the report of the NFP).
2 - Interest rates (decisions of the Committee Federal Open Market on interest).
3 - foreign purchases of U.S. bonds (data TIC).
4 - the trade balance.
5 - the current account.
6 - durable goods.
7 - retail sales.
8 - inflation (CPI).
9 - gross domestic product.
As noted in this table, the U.S. employment report is considered the biggest engine of the market, which causes the movement rate of 124 points during the first twenty minutes, averaging 192 points during the trading day. Interest rates and occupies second position in the list, either during the twenty minutes or during the day in general, but starts later in the classification change dramatically for the other indicators. The rate of movement after the announcement of the change in the value of foreign purchases of U.S. bonds to 33 points in twenty minutes, and average turnover during the day after the announcement to his 132 points.
The following are the movement rates of the euro / dollar during 2004:
Rate of movement within 20 minutes:
U.S. Employment Report: 124 points.
Commission's decision to the Federal Open Market: 74 points.
Trade Balance: 64 points.
Inflation (CPI): 44 points.
Retail Sales: 43 points.
Gross domestic product: 43 points.
Account: 43 points.
Durable goods: 39 points.
Foreign purchases of U.S. bonds: 33 points.
Daily rate of movement during the year 2004:
U.S. Employment Report: 193 points.
Commission's decision to the Federal Open Market: 140 points.
Foreign purchases of U.S. bonds: 132 points.
Trade balance: 129 points.
Account: 127 points.
Durable goods: 126 points.
Retail Sales: 125 points.
Inflation) index of consumer prices): 123 points.
Gross domestic product: 110 points.
• The average daily circulation of the euro / dollar and 111 points during 2004.
As you can see dear reader, the most important changes during the past few years is the importance of changing the balance of trade. In addition, the gross domestic product of less importance of economic indicators during the same period, in contrast to common belief, causing the cursor in a relatively simple movement of the euro / dollar. There is another explanation for this point, is that the gross domestic product does not make the same number of the data, the other covered by the study (this report quarterly and other reports are monthly reports). In addition, tend gross domestic product data to more uncertainty. For example, it would increase gross domestic product due to higher exports something positive for the country's currency, but if the height of the product as a result of rising incomes, will have no effect on the negative currency impact.
Is very important to develop a currency dealers such factors into account, regardless of the trading strategies that rely on technical analysis or fundamental analysis. For the merchants who rely on technical analysis, they know very well that they should stay away from trading before the reports of U.S. Employment non-agricultural sector for a certain period, while traders find who rely on fundamental analysis that the employment report is a wonderful opportunity for circulation. As for the traders who rely on fundamental analysis, these results bear great importance because the movement of change in the exchange rate in accordance with the economic news looks very fast, because it may be the reaction product after the publication of any economic report about 15 - 30 minutes is the result of investor reaction to the report, or be the result of inflows of funds consumers rather than as a result of that campaign reports and economic news alone. The gross domestic product is a wonderful example of this, where the reaction resulting from that report during the next twenty minutes after the announcement for more than reaction to him during the day. It is also dangerous to stay close to the data which he considers an important market at any time, because the focus of the market changes from time to another time.
At a time when most traders rely on the Forex market on technical analysis, the proportion of traders who rely on technical analysis 25% of total traders, compared with 30% rely on technical analysis. And merchants who rely on daily circulation, increases the proportion of users of technical analysis more than that. In any case, we have learned an important lesson during the past year, namely, the growing importance of fundamental analysis as a key driver of the engines of the market. Depending on what we have observed, occurs most important movements of the U.S. dollar often (against the euro) during the first twenty minutes after the publication of the report.
Change the relative importance of data over time:
The evolution of the relative importance of economic data and reports with the passage of time. In 1992, they read the balance of trade of primary importance among the occupying U.S. economic data driving the market, while U.S. employment report (and unemployment data) are in third place of importance. In 2004, took employment with the report of the unemployment data from the first place so important to be one of the biggest engines in the dollar market, and became the trade balance are in third place. It is obvious that change is so significant a change to the attention of market data and different economic sectors from time to time, for example, it is possible to receive data on trade balances priority when the country is expected to run deficits are in continuity. Similarly, the unemployment data is more important in the case of the economy face the difficulty in finding jobs for the people.
According to research conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Category forex traders of the importance of economic data, and change with time:
During 1997:
1 - unemployment.
2 - interest rates.
3 - inflation.
4 - the trade balance.
5 - Product GDP.
During 1992:
1 - the trade balance.
2 - interest rates.
3 - unemployment.
4 - inflation.
5 - Product GDP.
The other thing that must be borne in mind that prices return to normal during the day, so the larger engine of the U.S. dollar during the twenty minutes is not necessarily to be the biggest engine in the market during the trading session daily. According to our analysis with trading during the day and during the twenty minutes, we found that economic data can be classified according to their importance as follows:
During 2004 (a period of twenty minutes):
1 - unemployment (the report of the NFP).
2 - Interest rates (decisions of the Committee Federal Open Market on interest).
3 - the trade balance.
4 - inflation (consumer price index).
5 - retail sales.
6 - Product GDP.
7 - the current account.
8 - durable goods.
9 - foreign purchases of U.S. bonds (data TIC).
In 2004 (during the trading day):
1 - unemployment (the report of the NFP).
2 - Interest rates (decisions of the Committee Federal Open Market on interest).
3 - foreign purchases of U.S. bonds (data TIC).
4 - the trade balance.
5 - the current account.
6 - durable goods.
7 - retail sales.
8 - inflation (CPI).
9 - gross domestic product.
As noted in this table, the U.S. employment report is considered the biggest engine of the market, which causes the movement rate of 124 points during the first twenty minutes, averaging 192 points during the trading day. Interest rates and occupies second position in the list, either during the twenty minutes or during the day in general, but starts later in the classification change dramatically for the other indicators. The rate of movement after the announcement of the change in the value of foreign purchases of U.S. bonds to 33 points in twenty minutes, and average turnover during the day after the announcement to his 132 points.
The following are the movement rates of the euro / dollar during 2004:
Rate of movement within 20 minutes:
U.S. Employment Report: 124 points.
Commission's decision to the Federal Open Market: 74 points.
Trade Balance: 64 points.
Inflation (CPI): 44 points.
Retail Sales: 43 points.
Gross domestic product: 43 points.
Account: 43 points.
Durable goods: 39 points.
Foreign purchases of U.S. bonds: 33 points.
Daily rate of movement during the year 2004:
U.S. Employment Report: 193 points.
Commission's decision to the Federal Open Market: 140 points.
Foreign purchases of U.S. bonds: 132 points.
Trade balance: 129 points.
Account: 127 points.
Durable goods: 126 points.
Retail Sales: 125 points.
Inflation) index of consumer prices): 123 points.
Gross domestic product: 110 points.
• The average daily circulation of the euro / dollar and 111 points during 2004.
As you can see dear reader, the most important changes during the past few years is the importance of changing the balance of trade. In addition, the gross domestic product of less importance of economic indicators during the same period, in contrast to common belief, causing the cursor in a relatively simple movement of the euro / dollar. There is another explanation for this point, is that the gross domestic product does not make the same number of the data, the other covered by the study (this report quarterly and other reports are monthly reports). In addition, tend gross domestic product data to more uncertainty. For example, it would increase gross domestic product due to higher exports something positive for the country's currency, but if the height of the product as a result of rising incomes, will have no effect on the negative currency impact.
Is very important to develop a currency dealers such factors into account, regardless of the trading strategies that rely on technical analysis or fundamental analysis. For the merchants who rely on technical analysis, they know very well that they should stay away from trading before the reports of U.S. Employment non-agricultural sector for a certain period, while traders find who rely on fundamental analysis that the employment report is a wonderful opportunity for circulation. As for the traders who rely on fundamental analysis, these results bear great importance because the movement of change in the exchange rate in accordance with the economic news looks very fast, because it may be the reaction product after the publication of any economic report about 15 - 30 minutes is the result of investor reaction to the report, or be the result of inflows of funds consumers rather than as a result of that campaign reports and economic news alone. The gross domestic product is a wonderful example of this, where the reaction resulting from that report during the next twenty minutes after the announcement for more than reaction to him during the day. It is also dangerous to stay close to the data which he considers an important market at any time, because the focus of the market changes from time to another time.
Currently have 0 comments: